Machinery Pete’s Analysis – The Changing Landscape of Combine Prices


Machinery Pete's Analysis - The Changing Landscape of Combine Prices
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Over the course of 34 years, I have compiled comprehensive auction price data for various farm and construction equipment, with the aim of assisting you in making informed decisions when it comes to buying, selling, trading, and appraising. This data has always been a reliable source to determine the value of equipment based on the most up-to-date and trusted information.

Throughout the past two and a half years, a clear trend has emerged in the farm equipment sector, particularly in used machinery. The primary factor driving decisions during this period has been availability. With historically low levels of used inventory on dealer lots, buyers were compelled to act swiftly without much consideration for price. The mantra was simple: if you need it, just get it.

However, the scenario has begun to change recently. Our team at Machinery Pete has been closely monitoring the supply side of the market. The availability of used late-model large agricultural equipment, like combines, has finally started to rise from its previously unprecedented lows. This shift became apparent in the second week of December 2022, specifically for 1-to-3-year-old combines. As the supply increased, hard cash auction pricing for these relatively new combines cooled down.

Interestingly, there are sub-trends within the equipment sectors that deserve attention. While values for 1-to-3-year-old combines have softened, the opposite has been observed for 10-plus-year-old combines in good condition, particularly pre-DEF models with lower hours. These older machines have become the new hot spot in the market, commanding higher prices at auctions. For instance, a 2008 Case IH 2588 combine recently sold for an impressive $147,500, marking the highest auction price for this model in eight years.

Similarly, John Deere 9770 STS combines, manufactured from 2007 to 2011, have seen a three-year streak of increasing auction prices. Their average value has risen from $74,341 to $85,110 so far in 2023. It is worth noting that this is the first time in my career that I have witnessed 10-plus-year-old combines appreciating in value.

As with any market, things are continuously evolving, and assumptions may not always prove accurate. One intriguing development from our Machinery Pete data is the noticeable increase in the supply of 175+ horsepower tractors from early December to June 2023. Despite this rise in supply, auction pricing on high horsepower tractors has remained remarkably strong until early July. The question now is when this trend will begin to slide, and whether prices will hold steady. Stay tuned as we keep a close eye on the market’s shifting dynamics.

In conclusion, the farm equipment sector has experienced a period of fluctuation, with availability playing a critical role in decision-making. As the supply of certain machinery categories increases, prices respond accordingly. Sub-trends, such as the appreciation of older combines, add an intriguing dimension to the market dynamics. As we move forward, it is essential to stay vigilant and informed to make the best equipment decisions.

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